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Three news feeds are on this page. Mortgage Daily News is below, followed by the Christian Science Monitor, and finally "Your Money" articles from the New York Times. I hope you enjoy these perspectives. |
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| Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness | ||
| 8/1/2025 4:07 PM | ||
| Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness "Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist struggles to understand how the NFP revisions could be so big. Given that it"s not 2020 or 2021, today"s revisions were indeed on the large side (those years were MUCH larger... 2021"s average N...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Instantly Drop to 4 Month Lows After Jobs Report | ||
| 8/1/2025 2:36 PM | ||
| Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report--something to the effect of "no other economic report has as much power to cause volatility in rates, for better or worse." Days like today are the reason for that reminder. Thankfully, it was the "better" end of the spectrum. Rates tend to improve when economic...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Held Near Highs | ||
| 8/1/2025 2:28 PM | ||
| Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 3.8% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 25, 2025. “Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level sinc...Read More | ||
| Pending Home Sales Slip Again, Underscoring Market Stagnation | ||
| 8/1/2025 1:07 PM | ||
| The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s release showed a decline after last month’s modest gain, reflecting persistent market softening. Pend...Read More | ||
| Home Prices Still Rising Year-Over-Year, But Momentum Is Fading | ||
| 8/1/2025 12:48 PM | ||
| Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it"s more like home price depreciation (at least in month over month terms). This is a bit confusing because average prices were higher versus the previous month, but that is virtually always true at this time of year. ...Read More | ||
| Big Old Rally After HUGE Downward NFP Revisions | ||
| 8/1/2025 10:59 AM | ||
| Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revisions to the last 2 months. 139k reported in June became 19k. 147k reported last month was revised to 14k! That means, on average, the last 2 NFPs were 126.5k lower. It comp...Read More | ||
| Tradeshow Strategy, Verification Tools; AI Legal Case; Job Data Drops Rates | ||
| 8/1/2025 10:48 AM | ||
| Soon I will head to Michigan. Isolationists beware: Federal records revealed by a Freedom of Information Act request have found that the government of Singapore owns approximately 5 percent of all land in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The city-state’s sovereign wealth fund, The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, is the sole owner of...Read More | ||
| Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains | ||
| 7/31/2025 3:47 PM | ||
| Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morning"s economic data did little to change that. The initial reaction may have involved a modicum of selling, but it was fully erased by 11:15am. The PM hours saw both stocks and bonds ...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hold Near July Lows Ahead of Jobs Report | ||
| 7/31/2025 2:51 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintained. In other words, bonds had begun losing ground yesterday, but not enough for mortgage lenders to go to the trouble of re-issuing rates (something they prefer to do as little as possible). Thankfull...Read More | ||
| What Does July"s Data Suggest About Friday"s Jobs Report? | ||
| 7/31/2025 2:11 PM | ||
| Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow"s data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO"s US Rates Strategy desk. The "beat/miss/match" row refers to the percent of previous July payroll co...Read More | ||
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